Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV ABC, SN·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Flyers
to win
59%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.495vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT.009vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors PHI.010vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
- Back-to-backfavors PHIPHI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PHI Rick Tocchet · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).