Montréal Canadiens at Edmonton Oilers
TV SN, TVAS·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Canadiens
to win
56%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.515vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM-.072vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs.037GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors EDM.431vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.407th
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 3.0616th
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 23.1%10th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 78.2%18th
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 51.0%11th
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).