Buffalo Sabres at Colorado Avalanche
TV ALT, MSG-B·Ball Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Sabres
to win
58%
Avalanche
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.535vs.551win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.045vs.2425v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL-.006vs.096GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.3375v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors COLCOL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Avalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · COL Jared Bednar
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.455th
- Goals for / game
- 1st3.63
- 2.9310th
- Goals against / game
- 1st2.40
- 19.5%21st
- Power play
- 27th17.1%
- 81.9%4th
- Penalty kill
- 1st84.6%
- 45.9%32nd
- Faceoffs
- 8th51.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).