Buffalo Sabres at Vegas Golden Knights
TV MSG-B, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
38%Sabres
to win
62%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.045vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.006vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
- Back-to-backfavors BUFBUF played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).