Islanders at Hurricanes — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Islanders at Hurricanes

New York Islanders(43-34-5)

Carolina Hurricanes(53-22-7)

Thu, Jan 28, 6:30 PM ESTTV TNT, truTV·Lenovo Center

Our win probability

and the three reasons

37%

Islanders

to win

63%

Hurricanes

Expected goals: 2.6–3.4
Goes to overtime: 21%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR
.488vs.542win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR
-.069vs.1625v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI
.078vs-.096GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors CAR
-.034vs.8605v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors CAR
CAR at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Islanders

Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/60
45% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/60
28% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/60
27% to start635 career GP

Hurricanes

Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/60
53% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/60
28% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/60
20% to start58 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · CAR Rod Brind'Amour

Leaders

vs

M. Schaefer
59
Points
S. Aho
80
B. Horvat
31
Goals
A. Svechnikov
31
M. Schaefer
36
Assists
S. Aho
53

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

2.7925th
Goals for / game: 2nd3.55; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 5th2.88; 16.5%30th
Power play: 4th24.9%; 80.8%10th
Penalty kill: 11th80.5%; 52.6%5th
Faceoffs: 16th50.1%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 5@
Dec 11@
Jan 28@this game
Mar 30@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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