Dallas Stars at New York Rangers
TV Prime Video, MSG·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Stars
to win
44%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.109vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.390vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors DALNYR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 23rd2.87
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 15th3.04
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 5th24.7%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 15th79.9%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 1st54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).