Dallas Stars at New York Islanders
TV Prime Video, MSGSN·UBS Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Stars
to win
52%
Islanders
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs.078GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DAL.390vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYINYI at home
- Back-to-backfavors DALDAL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · NYI Peter DeBoer
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 5th2.88
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 30th16.5%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 10th80.8%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 5th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).