Hurricanes at Capitals — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Hurricanes at Capitals

Carolina Hurricanes(53-22-7)

Washington Capitals(43-30-9)

Thu, Jan 14, 7:00 PM ESTTV CARNHL, HHN·Capital One Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

50%

Hurricanes

to win

50%

Capitals

Expected goals: 3.0–3.0
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR
.542vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR
.162vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH
-.096vs.165GSAx / 60
Home icefavors WSH
WSH at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Hurricanes

Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/60
53% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/60
28% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/60
20% to start58 career GP

Capitals

Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/60
57% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/60
40% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/60
2% to start5 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: CAR Rod Brind'Amour · WSH Spencer Carbery

Leaders

vs

S. Aho
80
Points
A. Tuch
66
A. Svechnikov
31
Goals
A. Tuch
33
S. Aho
53
Assists
D. Strome
39

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.552nd
Goals for / game: 15th3.18; 2.885th
Goals against / game: 7th2.90; 24.9%4th
Power play: 25th17.8%; 80.5%11th
Penalty kill: 14th80.1%; 50.1%16th
Faceoffs: 20th49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 2@
Oct 13@
Jan 14@this game
Mar 3@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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