Vegas Golden Knights at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
49%Golden Knights
to win
51%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.514vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.050vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK1.03vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.2214th
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 2.9512th
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 24.6%6th
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 81.4%7th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 51.0%12th
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).