Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres
TV CARNHL, HHN·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Hurricanes
to win
44%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors CAR.542vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors CAR.162vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.096vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
- Back-to-backfavors CARBUF played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersHurricanes
Pyotr Kochetkov-0.04 GSAx/6053% to start135 career GP
Brandon Bussi+0.05 GSAx/6028% to start43 career GP
Cayden Primeau-0.45 GSAx/6020% to start58 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CAR Rod Brind'Amour · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).