Tampa Bay Lightning at Seattle Kraken
TV Prime Video, The Spot·Climate Pledge Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
56%Lightning
to win
44%
Kraken
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0885v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.072GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors SEASEA at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Kraken
Philipp Grubauer-0.11 GSAx/6054% to start449 career GP
Joey Daccord-0.03 GSAx/6046% to start173 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · SEA Lane Lambert
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
V. Dunn33
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 28th2.73
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 23rd3.13
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 20th19.5%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 31st72.2%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 27th47.7%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).