Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, TSN2·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Canadiens
to win
58%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.515vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.072vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.129vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.431vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).