Pittsburgh Penguins at Ottawa Senators
TV SN-PIT, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
46%Penguins
to win
54%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.510vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.036vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors OTT-.237vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT1.11vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).