Detroit Red Wings at New York Rangers
TV DSN, MSG·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Red Wings
to win
58%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET.496vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET-.060vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYR-.027vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors NYR.273vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
- Back-to-backfavors DETDET played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRed Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).