Dallas Stars at Ottawa Senators
TV Prime Video, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
46%Stars
to win
54%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.038vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL.109vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.390vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).