Edmonton Oilers at Washington Capitals
TV MNMT, SN+·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Oilers
to win
58%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors WSH.504vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM.040vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.037vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors EDM.475vs.3555v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
- Back-to-backfavors EDMEDM played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138
A. Tuch66 - GoalsA. Tuch33
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.446th
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 3.2325th
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 30.6%1st
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 77.8%20th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 52.6%6th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).