Ottawa Senators at New York Islanders
TV MSGSN2, TSN5·UBS Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
59%Senators
to win
41%
Islanders
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors OTT.515vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors OTT.107vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI-.066vs.078GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.609vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYINYI at home
- Back-to-backfavors OTTNYI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSenators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: OTT Travis Green · NYI Peter DeBoer
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).