Toronto Maple Leafs at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, SN·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Maple Leafs
to win
63%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DET.479vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DET-.113vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors DET-.105vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
- Back-to-backfavors TORTOR played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · DET Todd McLellan
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).