New York Islanders at Vegas Golden Knights
TV MSGSN, SCRIPPS·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
37%Islanders
to win
63%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.488vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.069vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK-.034vs.8215v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · VGK Ryan Craig
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).