Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres
TV ESPN+, HULU·KeyBank Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Canadiens
to win
57%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.515vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF-.072vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.431vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).