Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, SNW·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
36%Flames
to win
64%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.481vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.127vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.016vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersFlames
Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/6075% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/6025% to start37 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: CGY Ryan Huska · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
M. Frost22 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.5432nd
- Goals for / game
- 4th3.49
- 3.1221st
- Goals against / game
- 3rd2.79
- 16.2%31st
- Power play
- 17th20.7%
- 80.4%12th
- Penalty kill
- 3rd82.6%
- 49.3%21st
- Faceoffs
- 28th47.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).