San Jose Sharks at Vegas Golden Knights
TV TNT, truTV·T-Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
34%Sharks
to win
66%
Golden Knights
- Expected goals
- 2.5–3.5
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.479vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK-.114vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors VGK-.137vs-.050GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK.077vs1.035v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors VGKVGK at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Golden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · VGK Ryan Craig
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
M. Stone28 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).