Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild
TV MINNHL, Wild+·Grand Casino Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Maple Leafs
to win
58%
Wild
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MIN.479vs.511win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MIN-.113vs.0105v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.090GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors MINMIN at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Wild
Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/6060% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/6040% to start50 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · MIN John Hynes
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0716th
- Goals for / game
- 10th3.27
- 3.6031st
- Goals against / game
- 4th2.87
- 21.3%15th
- Power play
- 3rd25.2%
- 81.2%8th
- Penalty kill
- 16th79.8%
- 54.2%3rd
- Faceoffs
- 30th46.6%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).