Tampa Bay Lightning at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV The Spot, SN-PIT·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Lightning
to win
52%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT.294vs1.115v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).