Tampa Bay Lightning at St. Louis Blues
TV STLNHL, BN+·Enterprise Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
52%Lightning
to win
48%
Blues
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs.0495v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.058GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs.1145v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors STLSTL at home
- Back-to-backfavors TBLTBL and STL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Blues
Jordan Binnington-0.15 GSAx/6067% to start425 career GP
Joel Hofer+0.12 GSAx/6033% to start115 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · STL Jim Montgomery
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 24th2.80
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 19th3.10
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 26th17.6%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 25th76.7%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 19th49.4%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).