Sabres at Kraken — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Sabres at Kraken

Buffalo Sabres(50-23-9)

Seattle Kraken(34-37-11)

Sun, Dec 6, 8:00 PM ESTTV Prime Video, MSG-B·Climate Pledge Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

52%

Sabres

to win

48%

Kraken

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF
.535vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BUF
.045vs-.0885v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF
-.006vs-.072GSAx / 60
Home icefavors SEA
SEA at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Sabres

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/60
52% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/60
41% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/60
7% to start16 career GP

Kraken

Philipp Grubauer-0.11 GSAx/60
54% to start449 career GP
Joey Daccord-0.03 GSAx/60
46% to start173 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · SEA Lane Lambert

Leaders

vs

T. Thompson
81
Points
J. Eberle
55
T. Thompson
40
Goals
B. McMann
29
R. Dahlin
55
Assists
V. Dunn
33

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.455th
Goals for / game: 28th2.73; 2.9310th
Goals against / game: 23rd3.13; 19.5%21st
Power play: 20th19.5%; 81.9%4th
Penalty kill: 31st72.2%; 45.9%32nd
Faceoffs: 27th47.7%

Season series

first meeting

Dec 6@this game
Jan 21@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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