San Jose Sharks at Pittsburgh Penguins
TV SN-PIT, NBCSCA·PPG Paints Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Sharks
to win
52%
Penguins
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.479vs.510win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT-.114vs.0365v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors SJS-.137vs-.237GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors PITPIT at home
- Back-to-backfavors SJSPIT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSharks
Alex Nedeljkovic-0.08 GSAx/6043% to start228 career GP
Ilya Samsonov-0.12 GSAx/6036% to start222 career GP
Yaroslav Askarov-0.28 GSAx/6020% to start63 career GP
Penguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: SJS Ryan Warsofsky · PIT Dan Muse
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Celebrini115 - Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0417th
- Goals for / game
- 3rd3.54
- 3.5430th
- Goals against / game
- 24th3.15
- 21.2%16th
- Power play
- 7th24.1%
- 76.4%26th
- Penalty kill
- 6th81.4%
- 47.8%26th
- Faceoffs
- 24th48.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).