Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers
TV ALT, MSG·Madison Square Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Avalanche
to win
45%
Rangers
- Expected goals
- 3.2–2.8
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.0575v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.096vs.114GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupseven.337vs.3305v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYRNYR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Rangers
Igor Shesterkin+0.33 GSAx/6059% to start369 career GP
Joonas Korpisalo-0.19 GSAx/6041% to start350 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · NYR Mike Sullivan
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 23rd2.87
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 15th3.04
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 5th24.7%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 15th79.9%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 1st54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).