Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, ALT·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
55%Avalanche
to win
45%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.337vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · DET Todd McLellan
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 22nd2.91
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 19th3.10
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 12th22.6%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 23rd77.1%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 10th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).