New York Islanders at Philadelphia Flyers
TV NBCSP, MSGSN2·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
43%Islanders
to win
57%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PHI.488vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PHI-.069vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.078vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PHI-.034vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
- Back-to-backfavors NYINYI and PHI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).