Tampa Bay Lightning at Florida Panthers
TV The Spot, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
53%Lightning
to win
47%
Panthers
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.492win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0145v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs-.046GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors FLAFLA at home
- Back-to-backfavors TBLTBL and FLA played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Panthers
Jacob Markstrom-0.04 GSAx/6075% to start608 career GP
Akira Schmid-0.08 GSAx/6025% to start92 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · FLA Paul Maurice
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).