Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres
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Our win probability
and the three reasons
46%Penguins
to win
54%
Sabres
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.510vs.535win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT.036vs.0455v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BUF-.237vs-.006GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT1.11vs.7255v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BUFBUF at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Sabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · BUF Lindy Ruff
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
B. Rust29 - Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).