Toronto Maple Leafs at Boston Bruins
TV NESN, TVAS·TD Garden
Our win probability
and the three reasons
40%Maple Leafs
to win
60%
Bruins
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BOS.479vs.503win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors BOS-.113vs-.0585v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors BOS.052vs.201GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BOS-.105vs.6625v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors BOSBOS at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Bruins
Jeremy Swayman+0.20 GSAx/6099% to start271 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · BOS Marco Sturm
Leaders
vs- Points
D. Pastrnak100 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).