Toronto Maple Leafs at New York Islanders
TV MSGSN, SN·UBS Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
44%Maple Leafs
to win
56%
Islanders
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors NYI.479vs.488win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors NYI-.113vs-.0695v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors NYI.052vs.078GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors NYI-.105vs-.0345v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors NYINYI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Islanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · NYI Peter DeBoer
Leaders
vs- Points
- Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).