Buffalo Sabres at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV The Spot, MSG-B·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
41%Sabres
to win
59%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors BUF.535vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.045vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.006vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors BUF.725vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors BUFBUF played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersSabres
Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen-0.03 GSAx/6052% to start196 career GP
Alex Lyon+0.03 GSAx/6041% to start163 career GP
Colten Ellis-0.08 GSAx/607% to start16 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: BUF Lindy Ruff · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).