Wild at Flames — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Wild at Flames

Minnesota Wild(46-24-12)

Calgary Flames(34-39-9)

Thu, Nov 19, 8:00 PM ESTTV MINNHL, Wild+·Scotiabank Saddledome

Our win probability

and the three reasons

52%

Wild

to win

48%

Flames

Expected goals: 3.1–2.9
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MIN
.511vs.481win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MIN
.010vs-.1275v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors CGY
-.090vs.016GSAx / 60
Projected lineupsfavors MIN
.331vs-.0915v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
Home icefavors CGY
CGY at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Wild

Calvin Pickard-0.21 GSAx/60
60% to start204 career GP
Jesper Wallstedt+0.10 GSAx/60
40% to start50 career GP

Flames

Dustin Wolf-0.02 GSAx/60
75% to start128 career GP
Devin Cooley+0.14 GSAx/60
25% to start37 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: MIN John Hynes · CGY Ryan Huska

Leaders

vs

K. Kaprizov
89
Points
M. Coronato
45
K. Kaprizov
45
Goals
M. Frost
22
Q. Hughes
69
Assists
M. Coronato
27

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.2710th
Goals for / game: 32nd2.54; 2.874th
Goals against / game: 21st3.12; 25.2%3rd
Power play: 31st16.2%; 79.8%16th
Penalty kill: 12th80.4%; 46.6%30th
Faceoffs: 21st49.3%

Season series

first meeting

Oct 22@
Nov 19@this game
Mar 19@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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