New York Islanders at Winnipeg Jets
TV MSGSN, TSN3·Canada Life Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
45%Islanders
to win
55%
Jets
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.488vs.491win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors WPG-.069vs-.0485v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WPG.078vs.117GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors WPG-.034vs.0275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WPGWPG at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersIslanders
Ilya Sorokin+0.22 GSAx/6045% to start322 career GP
Vitek Vanecek-0.21 GSAx/6028% to start220 career GP
Semyon Varlamov+0.13 GSAx/6027% to start635 career GP
Jets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: NYI Peter DeBoer · WPG Scott Arniel
Leaders
vs- Points
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 2.7925th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.885th
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 16.5%30th
- Power play
- 24th18.5%
- 80.8%10th
- Penalty kill
- 21st77.6%
- 52.6%5th
- Faceoffs
- 9th51.1%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).