Stars at Golden Knights — Preview, Win Probability & Shot Map | Gridpex

Stars at Golden Knights

Dallas Stars(50-20-12)

Vegas Golden Knights(39-26-17)

Tue, Nov 17, 10:00 PM ESTTV TNT, truTV·T-Mobile Arena

Our win probability

and the three reasons

45%

Stars

to win

55%

Golden Knights

Expected goals: 2.8–3.2
Goes to overtime: 22%

← favors

favors

→

Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL
.527vs.514win rate (OT = tie)
Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK
.038vs.1545v5 xG diff / 60
Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DAL
.109vs-.050GSAx / 60
Home icefavors VGK
VGK at home

Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of Sep 28

Goaltending

projected starters

Stars

Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/60
65% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/60
35% to start225 career GP

Golden Knights

Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/60
52% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/60
48% to start281 career GP

GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.

Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · VGK Ryan Craig

Leaders

vs

J. Robertson
96
Points
J. Eichel
90
J. Robertson
45
Goals
M. Stone
28
M. Rantanen
55
Assists
J. Eichel
63

Season

2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32

3.339th
Goals for / game: 14th3.22; 2.712nd
Goals against / game: 12th2.95; 28.6%2nd
Power play: 6th24.6%; 80.3%13th
Penalty kill: 7th81.4%; 51.6%7th
Faceoffs: 12th51.0%

Season series

first meeting

Nov 17@this game
Nov 19@
Feb 20@

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

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