Edmonton Oilers at Philadelphia Flyers
TV NBCSP, SN·Xfinity Mobile Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Oilers
to win
52%
Flyers
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM.504vs.495win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM.040vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors EDM.037vs.010GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupseven.475vs.4655v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors PHIPHI at home
- Back-to-backfavors EDMEDM and PHI played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersOilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
Flyers
Dan Vladar-0.01 GSAx/6054% to start169 career GP
Joseph Woll+0.04 GSAx/6046% to start131 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: EDM Mike Babcock · PHI Rick Tocchet
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.446th
- Goals for / game
- 21st2.93
- 3.2325th
- Goals against / game
- 9th2.91
- 30.6%1st
- Power play
- 32nd15.7%
- 77.8%20th
- Penalty kill
- 22nd77.6%
- 52.6%6th
- Faceoffs
- 18th49.5%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).