Colorado Avalanche at Montréal Canadiens
TV ALT2, KTVD·Centre Bell
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Avalanche
to win
46%
Canadiens
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.0725v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.096vs.129GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors MTL.337vs.4315v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors MTLMTL at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Canadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · MTL Martin St. Louis
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127
N. Suzuki101 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 7th3.40
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 16th3.06
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 10th23.1%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 18th78.2%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 11th51.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).