Colorado Avalanche at Ottawa Senators
TV ALT, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
50%Avalanche
to win
50%
Senators
- Expected goals
- 3.0–3.0
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.515win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs.1075v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs-.066GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors OTT.337vs.6095v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors OTTOTT at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Senators
Linus Ullmark+0.09 GSAx/6062% to start360 career GP
Samuel Ersson-0.33 GSAx/6038% to start143 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · OTT Travis Green
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 8th3.35
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 13th2.99
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 8th24.0%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 29th75.7%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 2nd54.5%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).