Colorado Avalanche at Toronto Maple Leafs
TV ALT, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
59%Avalanche
to win
41%
Maple Leafs
- Expected goals
- 3.3–2.7
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors COL.551vs.479win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors COL.242vs-.1135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors COL.096vs.052GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors COL.337vs-.1055v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TORTOR at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersAvalanche
Mackenzie Blackwood+0.09 GSAx/6054% to start302 career GP
Scott Wedgewood+0.12 GSAx/6044% to start214 career GP
Trent Miner-0.09 GSAx/602% to start6 career GP
Maple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: COL Jared Bednar · TOR Jim Hiller
Leaders
vs- Points
N. MacKinnon127 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.631st
- Goals for / game
- 16th3.07
- 2.401st
- Goals against / game
- 31st3.60
- 17.1%27th
- Power play
- 15th21.3%
- 84.6%1st
- Penalty kill
- 8th81.2%
- 51.2%8th
- Faceoffs
- 3rd54.2%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).