Pittsburgh Penguins at Anaheim Ducks
TV Prime Video, SN-PIT·Honda Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
47%Penguins
to win
53%
Ducks
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors PIT.510vs.486win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors PIT.036vs.0095v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors ANA-.237vs-.049GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors PIT1.11vs.0075v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors ANAANA at home
- Back-to-backfavors PITPIT played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersPenguins
Arturs Silovs-0.25 GSAx/6091% to start71 career GP
Sergei Murashov-0.12 GSAx/609% to start5 career GP
Ducks
Lukas Dostal-0.03 GSAx/6049% to start189 career GP
Ville Husso-0.17 GSAx/6032% to start174 career GP
Laurent Brossoit+0.11 GSAx/6018% to start151 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: PIT Dan Muse · ANA Joel Quenneville
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).