Tampa Bay Lightning at Winnipeg Jets
TV The Spot, TSN3·Canada Life Centre
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Lightning
to win
52%
Jets
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.523vs.491win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL.125vs-.0485v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL.165vs.117GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors TBL.294vs.0275v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors WPGWPG at home
- Back-to-backfavors TBLTBL played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersLightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
Jets
Connor Hellebuyck+0.18 GSAx/6057% to start683 career GP
Stuart Skinner+0.04 GSAx/6043% to start277 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TBL Jon Cooper · WPG Scott Arniel
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130
M. Scheifele103 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.494th
- Goals for / game
- 25th2.79
- 2.793rd
- Goals against / game
- 21st3.12
- 20.7%17th
- Power play
- 24th18.5%
- 82.6%3rd
- Penalty kill
- 21st77.6%
- 47.4%28th
- Faceoffs
- 9th51.1%
Season series
first meeting- @
- @this game
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).