Vegas Golden Knights at Detroit Red Wings
TV DSN, SCRIPPS·Little Caesars Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
54%Golden Knights
to win
46%
Red Wings
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors VGK.514vs.496win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors VGK.154vs-.0605v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors DET-.050vs-.027GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors VGK1.03vs.2735v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors DETDET at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersGolden Knights
Adin Hill-0.06 GSAx/6052% to start243 career GP
Carter Hart-0.04 GSAx/6048% to start281 career GP
Red Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: VGK Ryan Craig · DET Todd McLellan
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).