Dallas Stars at Washington Capitals
TV Prime Video, MNMT·Capital One Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
48%Stars
to win
52%
Capitals
- Expected goals
- 2.9–3.1
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors DAL.527vs.516win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors DAL.038vs.0135v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors WSH.109vs.165GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors WSHWSH at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersStars
Jake Oettinger+0.12 GSAx/6065% to start376 career GP
Casey DeSmith+0.09 GSAx/6035% to start225 career GP
Capitals
Logan Thompson+0.33 GSAx/6057% to start218 career GP
Charlie Lindgren-0.05 GSAx/6040% to start175 career GP
Clay Stevenson-0.01 GSAx/602% to start5 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DAL Glen Gulutzan · WSH Spencer Carbery
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.339th
- Goals for / game
- 15th3.18
- 2.712nd
- Goals against / game
- 7th2.90
- 28.6%2nd
- Power play
- 25th17.8%
- 80.3%13th
- Penalty kill
- 14th80.1%
- 51.6%7th
- Faceoffs
- 20th49.3%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).