Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning
TV DSN, The Spot·Benchmark International Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
36%Red Wings
to win
64%
Lightning
- Expected goals
- 2.6–3.4
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors TBL.496vs.523win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors TBL-.060vs.1255v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TBL-.027vs.165GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupseven.273vs.2945v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors TBLTBL at home
- Back-to-backfavors DETDET played yesterday
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersRed Wings
John Gibson+0.04 GSAx/6070% to start589 career GP
Daniil Tarasov-0.18 GSAx/6030% to start98 career GP
Lightning
Andrei Vasilevskiy+0.22 GSAx/6085% to start725 career GP
Dennis Hildeby+0.08 GSAx/609% to start26 career GP
Mads Sogaard-0.45 GSAx/606% to start31 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: DET Todd McLellan · TBL Jon Cooper
Leaders
vs- Points
N. Kucherov130 - Goals
- Assists
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).