Toronto Maple Leafs at Seattle Kraken
TV Prime Video, KING·Climate Pledge Arena
Our win probability
and the three reasons
42%Maple Leafs
to win
58%
Kraken
- Expected goals
- 2.8–3.2
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signaleven.479vs.476win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors SEA-.113vs-.0885v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors TOR.052vs-.072GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors SEA-.105vs.7245v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors SEASEA at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Kraken
Philipp Grubauer-0.11 GSAx/6054% to start449 career GP
Joey Daccord-0.03 GSAx/6046% to start173 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · SEA Lane Lambert
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).