Toronto Maple Leafs at Edmonton Oilers
TV SN·Rogers Place
Our win probability
and the three reasons
39%Maple Leafs
to win
61%
Oilers
- Expected goals
- 2.7–3.3
- Goes to overtime
- 21%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors EDM.479vs.504win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors EDM-.113vs.0405v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signaleven.052vs.037GSAx / 60
- Projected lineupsfavors EDM-.105vs.4755v5 xG impact / 60 of the dressed skaters
- Home icefavors EDMEDM at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersMaple Leafs
Sergei Bobrovsky-0.01 GSAx/6070% to start923 career GP
Anthony Stolarz+0.20 GSAx/6030% to start176 career GP
Oilers
Frederik Andersen+0.17 GSAx/6050% to start653 career GP
Tristan Jarry-0.09 GSAx/6042% to start335 career GP
Devon Levi-0.12 GSAx/608% to start39 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: TOR Jim Hiller · EDM Mike Babcock
Leaders
vs- Points
C. McDavid138 - Goals
- Assists
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.0716th
- Goals for / game
- 6th3.44
- 3.6031st
- Goals against / game
- 25th3.23
- 21.3%15th
- Power play
- 1st30.6%
- 81.2%8th
- Penalty kill
- 20th77.8%
- 54.2%3rd
- Faceoffs
- 6th52.6%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).