Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks
TV NHLN, CHSN·United Center
Our win probability
and the three reasons
53%Canadiens
to win
47%
Blackhawks
- Expected goals
- 3.1–2.9
- Goes to overtime
- 22%
← favors favors →
favors →- Ability to win22% of the signalfavors MTL.515vs.463win rate (OT = tie)
- Scoring chances66% of the signalfavors MTL-.072vs-.2235v5 xG diff / 60
- Goaltending12% of the signalfavors MTL.129vs-.081GSAx / 60
- Home icefavors CHICHI at home
Gridpex NHL model v2026.09.28 · ratings as of
Goaltending
projected startersCanadiens
Samuel Montembeault+0.06 GSAx/6062% to start234 career GP
Jakub Dobes+0.25 GSAx/6038% to start81 career GP
Blackhawks
Spencer Knight+0.06 GSAx/6057% to start152 career GP
Arvid Soderblom-0.26 GSAx/6043% to start112 career GP
GSAx/60: goals saved above expected per 60 minutes, from our shot model — above zero is better than an average goalie facing the same shots.
Coaches: MTL Martin St. Louis · CHI Jeff Blashill
Leaders
vs
Season
2025-26 regular season · league rank of 32- 3.407th
- Goals for / game
- 30th2.56
- 3.0616th
- Goals against / game
- 27th3.29
- 23.1%10th
- Power play
- 29th16.9%
- 78.2%18th
- Penalty kill
- 2nd83.6%
- 51.0%11th
- Faceoffs
- 31st46.0%
Season series
first meeting- @this game
- @
Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).